It was the horse!!!!

I have a theory about the Belmont Stakes last Saturday. Sad to say, I have to make the assumption that some kind of chicanery was going on. Yup, it was crooked. The race was thrown.

Neither the ownership, the trainer nor the jockey was involved. Nor was any other human.

Yes, I have to say it. Big Brown threw the race all by himself. Faced with the prospect of making a lousy quarter on every dollar he bet, he tanked. Gave it up. Took a dive. Basically, he bet the field and made a mint.

There was another reason; had he won the race, he would have hit a track just once more, at the Breeders' Cup in the fall. Now he gets one additional start, in Saratoga later this summer. After all, once his racing career is over what does he have to look forward to at the tender age of three? An endless supply of high strung athletic fillies? What's the fun in that?

[note: No research was done in preparation for his post.]

Fish and fowl and....

Can it be done?

Can John McCain be fish and fowl and beef and tofu and whatever other protein food group you might care to mention? Can he be a "maverick" and adhere to what has become the standard Republican mantra all at the same time? Can he simultaneously satisfy the religious hard right and the swing voters? Will perceived "national security" issues trump choice? Can a traditional Republican "spend less" (and tax rich folks less) approach fly in a time when rising prices and the lack of the old-time union "wage floor" will be putting a serious squeeze on the largest swath of the American public?

I sure hope not.

"Can't vote for the brother?" "No, gotta vote for the sister!"

Much has been made about the fact that the late poll numbers -- both the independent polls and those conducted by the campaigns themselves -- were way off the mark on the Democratic side of yesterday's New Hampshire primary. The answer, it seems, is really quite simple.

It was not the Bradley effect. It was not a case of primary voters walking into the voting booth, closing that curtain and saying to themselves, "Here in the booth, alone with my thoughts, I cannot pull the lever/mark the box/whatever for the black man." [note: This is in contrast to the more public forum of the Iowa caucuses.]

So it was not a case of "can't vote for the brother." What it was, on the other hand, was a case of women going into the booth and thinking: "Gotta vote for the sister!!!" Simple as that.

I'll admit it: I've become an Obama supporter. Not a hugely strong one, but that's the button I would push were the Texas primary to be held today. I like his resume (community organizer, president of Harvard Law Review). I like the break with the past.

Realistically though, from a policy perspective, the differences are not huge. And, given the history, I can certainly understand the late Hillary vote. [It's not anything like voting for "one of your own" who's clearly a member of the "other side" -- the prospective "Condi effect" as it were.]

It's early -- and the beat goes on. As John Edwards said: "Two states down, forty-eight to go!"